There will be an awful lot of people in the market for a new iPhone come September.

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According to data released by analytics firm Localytics, Apple’s next iPhone could benefit from a massive upgrade wave as owners of the hugely popular iPhone 6 begin looking for a new handset.

The data shows that 28 percent of iPhone users are running the iPhone 6, and come September, these devices will begin hitting the three-year-old mark, with another 15.7 percent running the iPhone 5 and iPhone 5s models.

When people upgrade is variable — it’s a fuzzy line that spans 18 months to three years (not accounting for breakages and such) — but factoring into the equation the fact that the iPhone 6 was a big hit for Apple (and a release that itself triggered a huge upgrade wave for the company), the numbers are looking good for Apple.

Now, whether these owners of older devices will unlimber their wallets and purses and actually spend the money on new hardware remains to be seen. Apple’s past experience suggests that the limiting factor might not be demand but whether Apple can keep up with that demand.

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